YouGov released its first General Election projections of every seat across the UK, including the new Farnham and Bordon constituency.

The projections show the Conservatives are likely to retain their position, leading by 39 per cent with the Liberal Democrats (Lib Dems) following closely behind at 33 per cent. Labour comes in at 16 per cent, then Reform UK at 8 per cent and the Greens with 3 per cent.

Tory hold on neighbouring constituency Godalming and Ash, is set to be taken over by the Lib Dems with 46 per cent, a 15 per cent difference between the two parties.

Guildford, Woking, Surrey Heath and Dorking and Horley are projected to be Lim Dem seats while East Surrey looks to remain under the Tories.

In East Hampshire, Tory seems likely to remain, as the party has an 8 per cent lead over the Lib Dems. With the exception of Aldershot, there is lack of Labour projections in Surrey and Hampshire. Yet, Labour is projected to come out on top with a historic majority of 194 seats across the country.

YouGov said: “With a central projection of 422 Labour wins, this result would be beyond landslide territory. Not only would Starmer’s majority be bigger than the number Tony Blair achieved in 1997 (179), but it would in fact be the second largest majority in British political history after Stanley Baldwin’s figure of 210 in 1924.”

Projections are only an estimation and are based on modelled responses from 53,334 adults in England and Wales, and 5,541 in Scotland. The model is made to tell people what would happen if the general election was happening right now.

For comparison, there are other projections online at Electoral Calculus, Ipsos and electionmapsuk. View the YouGov projections online at