This week, Parliament held its Estimates Day debates, an opportunity for MPs to scrutinise government departmental spending – including education.

I raised the point that several extra cost pressures that are being put on schools, and argued that we are now at a point where a new school funding formula is needed, in recognition of demographic change.

In Hampshire, school-age pupil numbers have been steadily rising since 2015.

That year, around 187,400 children were enrolled in schools across the county. By last year, that figure had grown to nearly 200,000. This was a trend that reflected the national picture, with total pupil numbers in England reaching nearly 9 million by the 2023/24 academic year.

However, a sustained decline in the birth rate is now starting to reverse that trend. The impact has been most noticeable so far in primary schools, but will increasingly be felt in secondary schools over the coming years as smaller cohorts come through.

Managing school capacity during a period of growth is never straightforward. I’ve long been impressed by the detailed projection, planning and contingency planning the children’s services team at Hampshire County Council do. They monitor local birth rates, new housing developments and pupil movement, adjusting projections and planning school expansions or reconfigurations accordingly.

In recent years, several local schools have expanded to accommodate growth. The Butts Primary School in Alton, for example, received funding to increase capacity. In nearby Bordon, Oakmoor School got a major capital investment from the County Council for its establishment and subsequent expansion.

While managing rising numbers is a logistical and financial challenge, dealing with falling numbers on the pupil roll can be even more complex. Some areas of England, particularly parts of London and the North East, are already experiencing sharp drops in primary pupil numbers, leading to tough conversations about school funding and in some cases, school closures. Other regions, such as the East Midlands, are projected to remain more stable.

Because 92 percent of school funding is allocated on a per-pupil basis, even a reduction of say two children per class can create financial pressures, when staffing levels (and therefore most costs) remain the same.

In the Estimates debate, I put the case that rural primary schools are especially vulnerable to these changes, as they cannot absorb fluctuations in pupil numbers as easily as larger urban schools.

The Department for Education (DfE) recently issued updated pupil number forecasts by local authority area. Hampshire primary numbers are expected to fall by 3.5 percent by 28/29. Secondary numbers are projected to fall 2.4 percent by 30/31, but the Year 7 intake that year (30/31) is projected to be over 8 percent lower than last year’s (23/24).

These changes won’t be felt uniformly across the county and new housing developments will absorb some of the potential spare capacity. In some places, demand could still increase, necessitating further expansion, even against the backdrop of declining countywide numbers.

This calls for a highly localised approach to school place planning. But it also calls for the Government to look again at per-pupil funding and whether this works and is fair, especially for our rural primary schools.

Our local schools, governors, and trustees continue to do a fantastic job in adapting to evolving circumstances. Managing demographic change, whether growth or decrease, will remain one of the key challenges in the years ahead.