The speculation has been at full tilt for months – if not years – but on Friday morning it will finally collide with the reality of Australia and England opening their battle for the Ashes.

Cricket’s oldest international battle always brings a certain frisson to followers of the game, the more senior of the tribe prone to recall freezing winter mornings listening to crackling radio broadcasts when they should have been asleep.

Watching it on television – if you are prepared to shell out for the subscription – is certainly preferable but what has not changed is that feeling of expectancy at the start of the series.

More often than not, it is quickly dispelled by Australian superiority, given England have only returned with custody of the urn on five occasions since the Second World War. And one of those, in 1978-79, was when they came up against effectively a reserve team given the vast majority of the best players had defected to Kerry Packer’s World Series Cricket for a couple of years.

That was also the only time England have won in Perth, which hosted its first Test in 1970-71 and has generally been an unprofitable city for the Poms. The past eight clashes there have all resulted in shellackings for the tourists and they were only saved from another on the last tour, in 2021-22, by the Western Australian government’s Covid lockdown rules being so tight that the match was moved to Hobart.

What’s different this time? Well the ground for a start. The old Western Australian Cricket Association Ground – known as the Waca – no longer hosts internationals and has been replaced by the Optus Stadium on the other side of the Swan River. They were still building it when I was last there and even, from a considerable distance, its size looked formidable. On television it’s hard to discern the difference between many of the leading Australian grounds now, whether the MCG in Melbourne or Brisbane’s Gabba, and character doesn’t seem to be a requirement.

But perhaps a change of scene will prove lucky for England.

One of the few times they have avoided a heavy beating in Perth was the last time Australia chose not to open the series at the Gabba but in Perth.

That was in 1982-83, Bob Willis’ side comfortably holding their own thanks to a Derek Randall century in the second innings – having made 78 in the first – and Australia being 73 for two at the end chasing 346. Unfortunately, the match became notorious for an injury to seamer Terry Alderman, who attempted to rugby tackle a man invading the playing area and injured his right shoulder so badly that it almost finished his career.

Given Alderman had taken 42 English wickets in the previous Ashes series, in 1981, it might have tilted the balance between the sides, especially as strike partner Dennis Lillee suffered a knee problem which ended his involvement in the series.

But Australia, if only by accident, came across a more potent strike force through Rodney Hogg and Jeff Thomson joining Geoff Lawson and Willis’ side – deprived of several top players by bans following a South African rebel tour – were beaten 2-1 in the end.

It was a cautionary tale for all those who seek to predict who will be the most important and effective players in any series.

By Richard Spiller