The Department for Work and Pensions’ impact assessment of the Pathways to Work Green Paper quietly reveals what no minister would say at the despatch box: around 50,000 more children will be pushed into poverty if these proposals go ahead. That is not a path to prosperity – it's a policy failure in the making.

The Government is planning major reforms to sickness and disability benefits, claiming this will help more people into work. On the surface, that sounds reasonable – and I support efforts to empower those who can work. But the detail matters.

Despite what Labour says about wanting to reduce child poverty and boost working numbers, I told ministers in Parliament last week that their own figures suggest the opposite is about to happen.

Groups like the Surrey Welfare Rights Unit, with decades of experience helping people navigate the system, have issued stark warnings. Their response to the Green Paper is damning: these proposals appear driven by a desire to cut costs, not by evidence – and could actually make it harder for people to get into or stay in work.

In my own constituency, I meet people who want to work while recovering from illness, managing disabilities or balancing caring responsibilities. Change is necessary, and we need a system that both encourages work and is financially sustainable. But if these reforms are funded by cuts to support – and if the promised outcomes don’t materialise, the cost will fall on families. Ministers can’t just rely on the hope that schemes will succeed fast enough to offset the rise in child poverty their own assessment predicts.

We also can’t ignore the wider economic context. Businesses are cutting back on hiring, particularly in stretched sectors. Proposals in the Employment Rights Bill are already prompting employers to create fewer flexible roles – roles that many disabled people and parents rely on.

Earlier this year, the Federation of Small Businesses warned that two-thirds of small firms were rethinking recruitment due to concerns about the Bill, citing fears of litigation and regulatory uncertainty – concerns that could see vacancies disappear altogether.

You cannot have a serious child poverty strategy while knowingly pushing more children below the breadline. Nor can you claim to support disabled people into work while weakening the very safety nets that enable them to survive.

I will continue to push for a joined-up, evidence-led approach. One that tackles poverty not by shifting the goalposts, but by recognising people’s challenges – and responding with clarity and compassion.

We owe it to the families behind the statistics to get this right.